Schwab Center for Financial Research

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Borrowed Time: Final Rate Hikes And Stock Market Rallies
Market Commentary

History suggests that the stock market rally since the last Fed rate hike on December 19, 2018 may be on borrowed time.
Geopolitics: Examining The Top Five Risks
Market Commentary

Recent developments have caused markets to focus on geopolitical risk, with more to come in the month of May.
Earnings Season Not Adding Up
Market Commentary

Stock markets around the world have posted steady double-digit gains this year on a rebound of valuations. However, volatility may return without support from earnings growth.
Diversification: Finally Back After 20 Years
Market Commentary

The movements of the world stock markets are less correlated with each other than they have been in the past 20 years.
Inversions and Reversals: Leaders and Laggards May Be Changing Places
Market Commentary

Reversals in the long-term relative performance of growth and value stocks, large and small cap stocks, and U.S. and international stocks have been marked by yield curve inversions.
Brexit: What’s Next for Investors
Market Commentary

The stock market impact of the U.K. crashing out of the EU with no plan would probably be significantly negative, but if the disorderly “no deal” Brexit scenario is avoided the chances seem to favor a partial rebound in U.K. stocks and the British pound.
U.S.-China Trade Tensions Have Eased, Will Growth Revive?
Market Commentary

This year’s rally in Chinese and EM stocks could become vulnerable in the coming months as optimism over a trade deal leads to disappointment over its actual economic and earnings effect.
The Beginning is the End is the Beginning: A Look at Recessions
Market Commentary

Recessions are inevitable; what we don’t know is the length of runway between now and the next one. But we can look at history as a guide.
Diverging Trends: A Look At Earnings Growth Around The World
Market Commentary

The divergence in the assessment of the outlook reflected in the stock and bond markets may be decided by the ongoing convergence in earnings growth expectations across regions.