Market Commentary

Timely takes on markets and the economy.

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2020 Mid-Year Outlook: Global Stocks and Economy
Market Commentary

In our 2020 Global Market Outlook, we cited many indicators pointing to heightened risk of a recession; now we highlight increasing signs of a recovery from one.
Disconnect the Dots: Main Street vs. Wall Street
Market Commentary

The dominant question we’ve been getting from investors is about the perceived disconnect between what’s happening on Main Street and what’s happening on Wall Street.
Market Commentary

Cyclicals typically lead the market higher when stocks rebound from a bear market and recession—but not this time.
Every Picture Tells a Story: “Chartbook” Look at Economy/Market
Market Commentary

On a day that started with good news on an experimental COVID-19 vaccine, with the stock market showing strong early gains, today’s report is more visual and less wordy than normal. Since I know not every reader of these publications follows me on Twitter—where I’m constantly posting charts, tables and data that I find compelling—this report has a sampling of what has recently caught my eye (and some bright spots). It combines economic, monetary and market data (in that order), while also a connecting of the dots between the economy and the stock market.

Bond Insights

Despite massive fiscal and monetary stimulus, we believe there’s little risk of inflation in the next few years.
What’s the Future Payback for the Stimulus?
Market Commentary

It is becoming increasingly clear that the massive global stimulus is being financed by a rise in money, not debt.
High Speed: Bear and Bull Both Running at Full Speed
Market Commentary

Both the bear market and subsequent rally have occurred at warp speed; yet the economic recovery may be disappointing to what the market’s now “priced in.”
Market Commentary

Despite political remarks, no U.S. state is likely to seek bankruptcy protection.
Dashboards: Measuring Recovery In Real Time
Market Commentary

For each of the major countries in Asia and Europe, we will be tracking weekly data on key elements of a recovery to assess its pace and success.