Market Commentary

Timely takes on markets and the economy.

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Negative Interest Rates And The Future Of Investing
Market Commentary

If Japan represents what the debt and demographic future looks like for many countries, then the future for investors in a world of negative bond yields may lead to more stock market exposure.
Is The Tariff War Turning Into A Currency War?
Market Commentary

If rate cuts aren’t seen as enough to address slowing growth and policymakers turn to direct currency intervention, the resulting currency war could be bad news for investors.
Tariffs: Manufacturing A Recession
Market Commentary

Another round of trade tariffs is an additional hit to manufacturing, potentially deepening the global slowdown into a recession, despite the efforts of the Fed and other central banks.
What Race Horses Are Telling Us About Rate Cuts
Market Commentary

Economic indicators don’t have to be complicated to work. We look at four alternative indicators for the main driver of the global economy and assess how interest rate cuts might impact them.
Valuations Hold A Surprising Message For Stock Market Investors
Market Commentary

Valuations suggest international stocks may produce above average, double-digit annualized total returns over the next 10 years, in contrast to below average, mid-single digit returns for U.S. stocks.
U.S. Imports from China Plunge As Other Emerging Markets Fill The Gap
Market Commentary

U.S. imports from China have plunged this year, offset by import gains for other emerging markets not subject to U.S. tariffs.
Borrowed Time: Final Rate Hikes And Stock Market Rallies
Market Commentary

History suggests that the stock market rally since the last Fed rate hike on December 19, 2018 may be on borrowed time.
Geopolitics: Examining The Top Five Risks
Market Commentary

Recent developments have caused markets to focus on geopolitical risk, with more to come in the month of May.
Earnings Season Not Adding Up
Market Commentary

Stock markets around the world have posted steady double-digit gains this year on a rebound of valuations. However, volatility may return without support from earnings growth.