Market Commentary

Timely takes on markets and the economy.

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Diversification: Finally Back After 20 Years
Market Commentary

The movements of the world stock markets are less correlated with each other than they have been in the past 20 years.
Inversions and Reversals: Leaders and Laggards May Be Changing Places
Market Commentary

Reversals in the long-term relative performance of growth and value stocks, large and small cap stocks, and U.S. and international stocks have been marked by yield curve inversions.
Brexit: What’s Next for Investors
Market Commentary

The stock market impact of the U.K. crashing out of the EU with no plan would probably be significantly negative, but if the disorderly “no deal” Brexit scenario is avoided the chances seem to favor a partial rebound in U.K. stocks and the British pound.
U.S.-China Trade Tensions Have Eased, Will Growth Revive?
Market Commentary

This year’s rally in Chinese and EM stocks could become vulnerable in the coming months as optimism over a trade deal leads to disappointment over its actual economic and earnings effect.
Diverging Trends: A Look At Earnings Growth Around The World
Market Commentary

The divergence in the assessment of the outlook reflected in the stock and bond markets may be decided by the ongoing convergence in earnings growth expectations across regions.
Five Stock Market Indicators For 2019 You Should Ignore
Market Commentary

As investors ponder what this year may hold in store for the markets, the inter-relationships between politics, economics, fiscal policy, monetary policy, and corporate actions can seem very complex. Investors may feel overwhelmed and seek a simple answer. When people feel there is a situation that is out of their control or is too complicated to analyze, they often fall back on rules of thumb to make decisions.
Tax War: Will Global Competition to Lower Taxes Lift Growth?
Market Commentary

After last year’s U.S. tax cuts contributed to better growth and market performance, a number of major countries are looking to reverse the declines in growth and voter satisfaction with tax cuts in 2019.
What Could Go Right in 2019?
Market Commentary

In recent months, stock market participants have been focusing on downside risks in 2019, but not all risks are to the downside.
2020 Schwab Market Outlook

Ten-year Treasury yields should move higher in 2020 as recession fears ease.